Now that the regular season is coming to a close, I thought it would be interesting to determine which team ended up with the best offensive draft picks for the 2014 season where offensive equals one of QB, RB, WR or TE.
I paired up the draft picks with Football Outsider’s DVOA ratings through the regular 2014 season. Value is calculated by creating a simple linear model of DVOA modeled by pick number. The residuals from this model are used as a Value score.
This analysis only includes Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers and Tight Ends that meet the following criteria:
- Quarterbacks: Minimum 100 passes, 44 players ranked
- Running Backs: Minimum 100 rushes, 43 players ranked
- Tight Ends: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked
- Wide Receivers: Minimum 50 passes, 87 players ranked
This following dashboard shows individual draft picks by team along with their corresponding DVOA or Value score on the x-axis and pick number on the y-axis. The bottom sheet ranks the teams by their sum of DVOA or Value. Average wasn’t the best measure to use because in a lot of cases teams only had 1 player that met the above criteria.
Overall, the Jaguars drafted the worst due mostly to QB Blake Bortles. It probably comes as no surprise that Odell Beckham Jr., wide receiver and 12th overall pick to the NY Giants, ranked as the best draft pick by value and DVOA. If he keeps making catches like this and breaking records then he will have one hell of a career.