I just published The 2013 NFL Draft Expert Grades Visualized by Team and Round and received a lot of great feedback. I’ve created another version of that dashboard to display how much value each team was able to obtain based on their available draft picks, where value is defined by the experts’ grades post-draft.
In order to do this, I used a basic linear regression model in R where pick was the independent variable and Expert Grade was the dependent variable. I then used the residuals (differences between the actual value of the dependent variable and the value of the variable that was predicted by the model) in order to calculate a ‘value’ score for each draft pick. For example, if the expected grade in round 3 on pick 77 is 83 and the actual expert grade ends up being a 66, that pick will receive a poor value score. The value score is scaled from 0-1 with 1 being the best and the Denver Broncos nabbed the most value out of the entire draft for their round 7 pick on Quarterback Dysert. The Minnesota Vikings on average drafted the best according to the ‘Experts’ and the Buffalo Bills drafted the worst.